Mitsui Chemicals (4183) 1Q FY2026 results: 1Q earnings above consensus estimates

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

05 August 2026

Mitsui Chemicals (4183)

1Q FY2026 results: 1Q earnings above consensus

estimates

Neutral: Mitsui Chemicals reported 1Q (April-June) FY2026 results at 13:30 JST

on August 5 and held a briefing after the market close. Our impression from the

announcement is neutral. While 1Q results above consensus estimates are positive,

we would like to assess naphtha market trends from 2Q onward, as well as

inventory valuation effects and terms of trade in the basic & green materials (BGM)

and mobility solutions segments. The company’s share price pared gains after the

results announcement and closed up 2.0% on the day (TOPIX: +2.1%).

Earnings trends: 1Q core operating profit of ¥50.1 billion (+88.4% YoY) was

34.5% above the Bloomberg consensus average (which may comprise a mix

of core operating profit and operating profit). Inventory valuation effects

amounted to around ¥16 billion in absolute terms and contributed around ¥18

billion to profit growth YoY. Core operating profit beat our estimate by ¥10.4

billion, with overshoots of ¥7.3 billion in mobility solutions, ¥1.2 billion in

BGM, and ¥1.9 billion in ICT, life & healthcare (L&H) solutions, and other

areas. In mobility solutions, although TAFMER production was reduced due

to difficulty procuring raw materials amid the impact of the situation in the

Middle East, profit increased YoY thanks to a positive contribution from

inventory valuation gains, earlier-than-expected price pass-through, and yen

depreciation. In ICT, films for back-end semiconductor processes and pellicles

increased substantially.

1H earnings guidance announced: Mitsui Chemicals announced guidance

for 1H core operating profit of ¥76.0 billion (previously, it had only disclosed

full-year guidance). This seems to imply 2Q core operating profit of ¥25.9

billion (-41.8% YoY), which would be a ¥24.3 billion decline QoQ. The main

factors are an expected ¥20.0 billion negative impact from inventory valuation

effects and a ¥3.0-4.0 billion impact from scheduled maintenance at Osaka

Petrochemical Industries.The company estimates the sensitivity of inventory

…