Chart of the Week: Centers of Attention

Research evidence excerpt

Chart of the Week: Centers of Attention

Housing

July 24, 2026

Stephen Kim Aatish Shah, CFA Randa Shaw

(212) 497-0866 212-497-0899 (646) 708-8489

stephen.kim@evercoreisi.com Aatish.Shah@evercoreisi.com randa.shaw@evercoreisi.com

It's junior year, and Aatish is stuck with the group project from hell. His teammates agree to split the work "evenly," but

one just talks in circles, another promises to make slides that never appear, a third becomes overwhelmed with other

“commitments,” and one just drops out of school altogether! As the deadline looms, Aatish watches his share of the

workload rise higher and higher, until finally on presentation day, it dawns on him that he isn't in the group, he is the

group…

The same might be said for data centers, which have accounted for more than their fair share of the nation’s construction

lately. According to the American Institute of Architects (AIA), virtually all of the projected growth in non-res spend in

2026 and 2027 is tied specifically to data center construction. The other end-markets combined will actually see spending

decline over the next two years. Just like Aatish, it seems data centers are the only ones making the grade.

This week, the AIA released its revised forecast for nonresidential construction, with spending on data centers expected to be up

+33% y/y in 2026 and another 25% in 2027. Total non-residential construction is expected to be down -0.3% y/y in 2026 and +3.0%

y/y in 2027, but excluding data centers, these growth rates would be down -3.0% y/y and up just +1.0% y/y, respectively. Given its

rapid growth, data centers are expected to account for ~8% of all nonresidential spending by 2027, up from less than 5% in 2025.

Figure 1: AIA Forecasted Construction Spending Growth in 2026 and 2027

45%