First Read: Thai Oil "Q226E preview - healthy operations amid inventory losses"

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Thai Oil "Q226E preview - healthy operations amid inventory losses"

Global Research

24 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesThai Oil

Q226E preview - healthy operations amid Thailand

inventory losses Oil Companies, Secondary

12-month rating Neutral

12m price target Bt48.00

Q226E preview - sharp decline QoQ due to stock loss

Thai Oil is scheduled to report its Q226 results on 13 August. We expect the company to

come in with a headline profit of Bt8.0bn, -59% QoQ and +23% YoY. Excluding FX loss Price (23 Jul 2026) Bt64.00

and Bt1bn provision of obsolete CFP equipment, we expect a core profit of Bt9.6bn, - RIC: TOP.BK BBG: TOP TB

36% QoQ and 452% YoY. This appears to be tracking ahead of market expectations, as

Trading data and key metrics

a stronger-than-expected gross refining margin (GRM) more than offsets the impact of

inventory losses. The provision of CFP equipment is related to catalysts and piping assets 52-wk range Bt65.75-30.50

under construction that don't meet the company's standard. Market cap. Bt143b/US$4.23b

Shares o/s 2,234m (ORD)

Core operations remain healthy, supported by stronger GRM Free float 50%

The QoQ decline would likely be driven by an estimated Bt31bn negative inventory Avg. daily volume ('000) 18,056

earnings swing, from a Bt21bn stock gain in Q126 to a potential Bt10bn stock loss in Avg. daily value (m) Bt914.2

Q226, based on our estimates, partly offset by NRV gain and lower hedging loss. Common s/h equity (12/26E) Bt202b

Looking beyond stock, NRV and hedging-related impacts, underlying operations remain P/BV (12/26E) 0.7x

healthy. We estimate Q226 market gross integrated margin (GIM) at around US$24.0/ Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 2.5x

bbl, up from US$14.8/bbl in Q126, largely supported by the refinery segment. We