South African Food Retail In-store pricing survey: Promotions intensify as Boxer overtakes Shoprite on price

Research evidence excerpt

South African Food Retail In-store pricing survey: Promotions intensify as Boxer overtakes Shoprite on price

competitive intensity is still building, and the market is likely to

reward operators with scale and clear value credentials while penalising those

forced to defend volumes through increasingly expensive price actions.

Our SA in-store pricing work points to a clear message: competitive intensity

is rising, and retailers are leaning harder into price to protect volumes—supportive

for traffic, but a tougher backdrop for margins. On our comparable basket, Boxer

moved ahead of Shoprite in July (having trailed in April), screening as the lowest-

priced operator in our sample at 2% cheaper than Checkers and 0.7% cheaper than

Shoprite. Boxer also led on Bread & Cereals, reinforcing its sharpened value

positioning. Outside of Shoprite/Boxer, Spar screened as the most competitive,

with its basket 1.4% cheaper than Checkers. Pick n Pay remained at a premium

(+1.7% vs Checkers), while Woolworths continued to sit at a meaningful premium

(+7%). Promotions stepped up materially across the board. The share of our basket

on promotion rose from 19% in April to 38% in July, led by Shoprite at 56% (from

41%). Spar increased to 50% (from 12%), followed by Checkers at 41% (from

24%), Pick n Pay at 38% (from 21%), and Woolworths at 9% (from 0%). This

broad-based ramp in promotional activity suggests price competition is becoming

more pervasive, which raises the hurdle for margin delivery into the next set of

results. Consistent with this, our basket implied average deflation of -0.8% in July.

Boxer (-5.1%) and Spar (-5.0%) were the most aggressive on pricing, followed by

Woolworths (-0.6%), while Checkers (+1.1%) and Shoprite (+3.2%) were higher

on the comparable basket.