First Read: Asian Airline Sector "Cutting through the tariff noise" Yeung

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Asian Airline Sector "Cutting through the tariff noise" Yeung

Global Research

24 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesAsian Airline Sector

Cutting through the tariff noise Asia Pacific

Airlines

Perry Yeung

Expect intact air cargo demand growth despite the new tariff regime Analyst

Effective from 24 Jul, the US will levy new section 301 tariff on imports from 60 perry.yeung@ubs.com

economies, covering major APAC jurisdictions at a rate of 10.0%-12.5% as their section +852-2971 6349

122 tariff (10% global tariff) would expire on the same day. This is in addition to the new Xin Chen

custom duty imposed by the EU from 1 July where fix custom duty of €3 would be Analyst

applied on small parcels valued at less than €150 entering the EU. However, we expect S1460511050002

intact air cargo demand growth, supported by shipment growth by high value goods xin.chen@ubs.com

+86-21-3866 8864(e.g., semiconductors, servers) which made up a significant portion of air cargo

shipment in APAC with likely lower price elasticity of demand, fuelled by the AI boom. Melissa Leong

At the same time, we expect continued growth in cross-border e-commerce goods Analyst

where Chinese platform goods carry superior value proposition. Cargo demand growth melissa.leong@ubs.com

+65-6495 6773

has been strong YTD in APAC. According to IATA, air cargo load (CTK) growth in APAC

was 9.1% YoY in 5M26, outpacing capacity expansion rate of 5.8%. Pricing has also Samuel Yip

been highly supportive, with Baltic air freight index up c15% YoY YTD on average. Associate Analyst

Within aviation sector under UBS coverage, SATS, Eastern Air Logistics and Cathay samuel.yip@ubs.com

+852-3712 2727

Pacific have relatively heavy exposure to air cargo business, all with Buy rating.

Andre Fromyhr