US Consumer Staples "The Weekly Tab: A Crude Awakening" Grom

Research evidence excerpt

US Consumer Staples "The Weekly Tab: A Crude Awakening" Grom

Global Research

24 July 2026ab

US Consumer Staples Equities

AmericasThe Weekly Tab: A Crude Awakening

Household Products

Peter Grom

Sentiment Turns More Cautious as Cost Concerns Resurface Analyst

Through Thursday’s close, the XLP underperformed the S&P by -166bps, marking three peter.grom@ubs.com

weeks of underperformance (out of four) to start C3Q. Our conversations suggest that +1-212-713 3482

sentiment has shifted in the past several days as investors focus increasingly on Sona Fernandes

upcoming earnings and the implications of a more uncertain cost backdrop. The Analyst

prevailing view as early as last week was that inflation, though still above pre-conflict sona.fernandes@ubs.com

levels, was tracking better than guidance and could provide greater earnings support. +1-212-649 8050

However, that confidence appears to have deteriorated this week given the move higher Arian Chakravarty

across key inputs and while we do not think investors expect downward revisions at this Associate Analyst

stage, the level of flexibility on the bottom line has gone away. We would argue that this arian.chakravarty@ubs.com

new reality has become priced in to a degree as the group as a whole has pulled back +1-212-713 1474

more than 3% in the last week alone, but with valuation in certain pockets of the group Antara Nag-Chaudhuri

still expensive vs. history, it does make for a trickier set up over the next several weeks. Associate Analyst

antara.nag-chaudhuri@ubs.com

Stocks/Events In Focus This Week: +1-212-713 4827

Boston Beer (Neutral): SAM reported 2Q26 earnings on Thursday (7/23) after Tristan How

the close (link). SAM reported a 2Q miss largely driven by weaker top line growth Associate Analyst