HOLT "Global Stock Highlights from the Week - 24th July 2026" Spillecke

Research evidence excerpt

HOLT "Global Stock Highlights from the Week - 24th July 2026" Spillecke

Financials and Real Estate

Capital One (COF) shares down despite reporting Q2 results above

estimates with lighter provisions; Mkt Implied CFROE remains

(4)

undemanding vs near-term forecasts

Capital One shares were down post-earnings as investors focused on elevated operating

costs and the absence of formal expense guidance. Meanwhile, the company posted a

strong Q2 beat, with adj. EPS of $5.81 vs. $4.68 consensus, as improving credit trends

drove a $662M reserve release and provisions came in $1.0B below estimates. Net

revenue of $15.8B rose modestly above consensus, with NIM expanding to 8.01% and

healthy loan growth across key businesses. Forecast CFROE indicates continued

improvement post-merger driven by greater efficiencies for the combined business.

However, market expectations imply no improvement to ROA from 2025 levels and 3%

asset growth (click here) suggesting upside should operating momentum continue.

India's HDFC Bank drops on weak margins; stock is priced for stable

(5)

ROA, with asset growth fading towards a 20-year low

Indian bank stocks declined on Monday, led by a more than 5% drop in HDFC Bank, as

weaker-than-expected lending margins raised concerns about profitability. HDFC Bank's

1QFY27 results showed healthy loan growth, but net interest margin (NIM) declined to

3.26%, remaining well below the ~4% pre-HDFC Ltd merger level, as a higher mix of

lower-yielding corporate loans weighed on profitability (click here). Based on consensus-

derived ROA estimates for FY27e–FY28e, and assuming ROA remains stable at c.1.7%

through FY31, the current share price implies a slowdown in asset growth from c.13%

p.a. to a historical trough of c.9% (click here).