First Read: BTPN Syariah "H126: In line with consensus" (Buy) Tanja

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: BTPN Syariah "H126: In line with consensus" (Buy) Tanja

7E 203 206 1 194

BTPS management remains optimistic about achieving mid-teen earnings growth in 12/28E 237 227 -5 215

2026, supported by improving asset quality and a recovery in financing growth. The

Joshua Tanja, CFA

bank expects normalised credit costs to remain around 5% from 2026 onward, with

Analyst

limited room for further material decline. Management also remains confident that joshua.tanja@ubs.com

demand from ultra-micro customers will remain resilient despite aggressive pricing by +62-21-2554 7030

SOE competitors, as customers typically maintain multiple borrowing relationships to

Ivan Reynaldo Sutheja

meet their financing needs. Meanwhile, the newly launched individual financing

product has reached IDR60bn in outstanding loans across c.4.4k customers and will be ivan-reynaldo.sutheja@ubs.com

expanded to 60 locations in July 2026. We believe medium-term earnings growth will +62-21-2554 7037

increasingly be driven by loan growth rather than margin expansion, given ongoing loan

mix shifts toward lower-yield segments and a more competitive operating environment.

Valuation: Lower price target to Rp1,605 from Rp1,775; Maintain Buy

We derive our price target from a Gordon growth model, using 7% risk-free rate (prev.

6.75%), assuming 14.5% sustainable RoE (prev. 14.3%), on July 2027E cut-off

valuation date (prev. March 2027E), 9% sustainable growth (unchanged). At our price

target, BTPS would trade at 14.2x 2027E PE and 1.1x 2027E PB.

Highlights (Rpb) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 5,321 4,970 4,772 4,774 5,241 5,883 6,685 7,716

Pre-tax profit 1,379 1,355 1,566 1,737 2,026 2,223 2,519 2,996

Net earnings (reported) 1,080 1,063 1,201 1,364 1,591 1,745 1,978 2,352