Morning Market Tidbits: Healthy labor market keeps focus on inflation risks

Research evidence excerpt

Morning Market Tidbits: Healthy labor market keeps focus on inflation risks

Accessible version

Morning Market Tidbits

Healthy labor market keeps focus on

inflation risks

Key takeaways 24 July 2026

Economics• Labor data remain reassuring ahead of Jul FOMC: u-rate at 4.2%, stable ADP and

United States

benign claims.

• Today's data: S&P Global manufacturing & services PMI, new home sales and building Shruti Mishra

US Economist

permits. BofAS

smishra44@bofa.com

US Economics

What Matters Today: Initial claims continue to track at benign levels BofAS

Initial jobless claims (SA, thous) See Team Page for List of Analysts

280 2023 2024 2025 2026

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Week of year

Source: BLS, Haver Analytics

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

June jobs showed no material labor market deterioration

With much of the focus recently on inflation data, it is worth taking a step back and

assessing how the labor market has evolved since the June FOMC meeting ahead of next

week's July meeting. June payroll growth came in softer than expected, but the three-

month average of job gains remains comfortably above the breakeven rate. More

importantly, the unemployment rate has remained range bound at 4.2%.

ADP & claims point to continued resilience

More recent data paint a similarly reassuring picture. ADP average weekly job growth

has moderated in recent weeks. But that likely reflects payback from the unusually

strong gains seen earlier this year, which may have been boosted by residual seasonality

or temporary hiring. Meanwhile, even setting aside this week's (survey week of Jul jobs)

unusually low initial claims reading, the four-week averages of both initial and continuing

claims remain in benign territory. Bottom line: the labor market appears healthy heading