Peacock Takes Flight, but Broadband Still Grounds Sentiment; The Case for the Sp

Research evidence excerpt

Peacock Takes Flight, but Broadband Still Grounds Sentiment; The Case for the Sp

And management is operating under the assumption that the market only gets more competitive

from here. Looking ahead, we widen our estimates for net losses from 3Q/4Q from 55k/140k to

90k/168k, implying flattish y/y trends in 3Q and a slight improvement in 4Q. We'd also flag a

second-order risk. Beyond pressuring Comcast directly, a more aggressive Starlink likely forces

fiber and FWA operators to push harder as well, feeding a vicious cycle in an already cutthroat

market. While we believe Comcast is making the right moves in its go-to-market evolution, the

backdrop simply remains too challenging to underwrite sustained improvements.

Broadband ARPU declines should have hit a trough

Broadband ARPU declined 3.8% y/y to $73.27, an as-expected step-down from 3.1% last quarter

given the dilution from free wireless lines, the absence of a broadband rate increase, and

migration of the base towards everyday pricing at lower price points. We see the rate of decline

improving in 3Q/4Q to 3.0%/2.0% as efforts from last year’s go-to-market pivot are lapped and

free wireless lines begin converting into paying relationships in greater volumes.

Wireless posts another record net adds quarter; free-line conversion key to

monetization proof point

Wireless line net adds were a record 448k, comfortably ahead of the Street’s 395k and up 70k

y/y, marking a second consecutive record quarter. Total lines crossed 10mm for the first time,

ending at 10.2mm – 17% penetration of the domestic residential broadband base and just 7% of

the total addressable wireless line opportunity in-footprint. We raise our 3Q/4Q estimates for net

line adds by 20k/25k to 420k/410k.