A Lifeline Worth Taking.

Research evidence excerpt

A Lifeline Worth Taking.

Investment Thesis

We are Neutral-rated on PYPL as we see the process of returning the company to consistent and profitable revenue growth as a

multiyear initiative, rather than a FY26 story. In the more immediate term, we believe there are cost-savings opportunities for PYPLFINTECH to drive EPS growth, but the more important KPI right now in our view is transaction margin dollar (a.k.a. gross profit) ex-interest

growth (which is guided to be flat in FY26). We think there are opportunities for PYPL to right the ship and return to an attractive

and consistent MSD transaction margin dollar growth, but we want to see more tangible indications that trends are beginning to

turn positive before we become more constructive on the stock.EQUITY

Upcoming Catalysts Price Performance

■ 2Q26 earnings report. $100

■ Updates on the company's execution of its strategic initiatives. $90

$80

$70RESEARCH

$60

Base Case Assumptions $50 $40

■ Transaction margin dollars (TM$) ex-interest grow 0.5% in FY26. $30

■ Adjusted EPS declines 0.7% in FY26. Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26

PYPL

S&P 500 (rebased)

Source: FactSet

Upside Scenario: $70/sh Company Description

■ A higher acquisition bid than the one reported by Reuters is offered. PayPal is a technology platform that

■ Branded volumes grow beyond expectations and drive take-rate improvement enables digital payments and simplifies

leading to FY26 gross profit growth surpassing Street expectations. commerce experiences on behalf of

■ Adjusted operating margin expands as management is able to drive product merchants and consumers worldwide.

adoption without the level of investment currently expected. PayPal seeks to democratize financial