Online Freelancing: From Bad to Worse

Research evidence excerpt

Online Freelancing: From Bad to Worse

July 15, 2026 Online Freelancing: From Bad to Worse

Cutting Estimates as Decline in Job Listings Has Accelerated; Remain

Neutral on UPWK and FVRR Marvin Fong, CFA

(212) 527-3562 mfong@btig.com

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: We are cautious into the prints for Upwork (UPWK,TECHNOLOGY, Neutral) and Fiverr (FVRR, Neutral) as we have tracked incremental pressure on

Upwork Talent Marketplace job listings since our June 11 update (note). Since mid-

June, w/w job counts have been declining high-single digits, a marked acceleration

from the low-single digit w/w decline we observed through mid-May. We can't pinpointMEDIA a reason for the acceleration in the rate of decline, especially since macro hiring

indicators have been relatively stable. The recent trend suggests the stability UPWK

saw in April has given way to a new leg of weakness. It may well be that there has beenAND some kind of change in how UPWK reports project listings, but if that was the case we

would have expected more of a one-time reset rather than the consistent and elevated

pressure we have been observing week after week. We do see indicators that part of

the decline is AI-related as lower-value work is seeing greater disruption than higher-

value work. From the start of the year to mid-June, sub-$500 projects held steady at

76% of total fixed-price jobs, but that has declined to 71%. Put another way, the decline

in sub-$500 work is 1.5x the decline in work priced over $500. To be clear, though,

all value ranges of fixed-price work are down on the marketplace. With lower-value

work becoming a shrinking part of the mix, Upwork's average project values are rapidly

climbing. In our tracking, average project sizes are up 17% just since mid-June, but that