2Q Preview: How Deep is the Rot? Reit. Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

2Q Preview: How Deep is the Rot? Reit. Neutral

July 15, 2026 Roblox Corp.

(RBLX, Neutral)DIGITAL Clark Lampen

2Q Preview: How Deep is the Rot? Reit. Neutral (212) 882-2337 clampen@btig.com

Joseph Spiezio WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: Ahead of earnings, we are adjusting our 2Q26 estimates (617) 345-4041 jspiezio@btig.com

to reflect slightly stronger new user sign-up volumes. Our data, which has historically Company DataGAMING correlated well with reported DAU totals, points to ~117M DAUs for the quarter,

pushing our 2Q bookings estimate slightly above the high end of guidance (BTIGe Closing Price $56.43

$1.618B vs. $1.550B–$1.610B). For 2H26 and beyond, estimates move slightly higher Price Target -

(Bookings +1.5–2% in '27/'28) but remain below the Street, and we see risk from a Market Cap (M) $40,161.06

deceleration in sign-up volumes, intra-quarter platform adjustments (highly engaged Enterprise Value (M) $38,557.67EQUITY

user + content recommendation algo changes), and the release of GTA VI (TTWO, Buy, Shares Out (M) 711.70

$293 PT) in mid-November. Looking past the 2H26 dynamics, we believe the recent Avg Daily Vol-3 Months (M) 11.76

strategic shift toward O18 content/users is logical, given platform safety pressure has

been greater than initially anticipated; however, most O18-oriented initiatives have Dividend / Yield $0.00 / 0.0%

yet to gain meaningful traction, and Roblox has leaned into higher-fidelity content Revisions

initiatives in the past without breakthrough. Roblox is likely to be supportive of its stock Previous CurrentRESEARCH

via repurchase throughout the O18 transition (~$1B of its $3B program targeted for Rating Neutral Neutral

deployment over the next 12 months), which should help limit downside; however, Price Target - -