Philip Morris International: How much further could PMI re-rate?

Research evidence excerpt

Philip Morris International: How much further could PMI re-rate?

23 July 2026

Philip Morris International

division's gross profit was $4.4 billion, with 11.5% reported growth and 8.0%

organic growth.

Strong Performance: Combustibles performance was above expectations in Q2,

with growing volumes, very good pricing, stable category share, and gross profit

growth. This delivery is not expected to repeat to the same magnitude for the full

year but demonstrates portfolio robustness.

Volume & Pricing: Q2 cigarette shipments increased 1.1%, ahead of expectations,

driven by good category share performance, timing factors, and favourable

industry dynamics in markets where SFPs are banned or very small. Pricing

contributed +9.2% in H1 and almost +10% in Q2, with notable contributions from

Turkey, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Mexico.

Market Share: International category share was maintained at 25.3% in Q2, with

Marlboro matching its record high of 11.0%.

H2 Outlook: Management commented that it expects some moderation in H2 due

to timing and annualisation factors. The full-year pricing variance is forecast to be

over 7%, though this benefit will be partially offset by an adverse geographic mix

skewing towards lower per-unit revenue markets (DBe Combustible Mix at -

2.5%). Management revised the full-year cigarette volume decline forecast to

around 2-3% (from 3% previously), consistent with structural evolution.

Overall, the International business delivered adj OCI growth of 15.5% (+13.2%

organic) to $4.6 billion in Q2, implying margin expansion of 160bps to 44.9%.

US Division Performance

The US division recorded net revenues of $0.9 billion in Q2 2026, which was down

0.7% and 0.9% reported / organic, respectively. Adjusted gross profit for the US