Barratt Redrow: Headwinds persist - asset value remains

Research evidence excerpt

Barratt Redrow: Headwinds persist - asset value remains

Deutsche Bank Group

Deutsche Numis Research

Rating Company Date

Buy Barratt Redrow 23 July 2026

Company Update

Europe

United Kingdom

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 21 Jul 2026 (GBP) 285.90

BTRW.L BTRW LN LSE BTRW

Price Target (GBP) 364.00

Housebuilders

UK Housebuilders ADR ISIN 52-week range (GBP) 409.40241.20-

BTDPY US0683341012

Headwinds persist - asset value remains

Valuation & Risks

Chris Millington

Barratt Redrow's update pointed to FY26 being in line with expectations, but

Research Analyst

guidance around the impact of build cost inflation results in us downgrading +44-20-7541-1570

FY27/28 PBT forecasts by 23/25%. We now forecast the group to make c.5% ROE

for FY27, and with little near term prospect of the group making close to its cost of Jonathan Coubrough

capital, we think management is right to reduce investment and focus on

+44-20-754-54671

shareholder returns - although we do not think the FY27 return of £400m is

sustainable. We do see value in Barratt Redrow's asset base at c.0.6x P/NTA, and Christen Hjorth

analysis in this note looking at writing down the balance sheet to restore margins Research Analyst

to pre Covid levels suggests there is material upside, and supports our Buy rating. +44-20-754-11567

In summary, whilst swap rates are likely to dictate the share price in the short-term,

Key changes

we think that Barratt's valuation already factors in a lot of negativity, and any

positive news flow (improved market conditions/government support scheme) TP 366.00 to ↓ -0.5%

364.00

could lift the shares appreciably.

DB EPS (GBP) 27.69 to 28.08 ↑ 1.4%

Revenue (GBPm) 6,048 to 6,057 ↑ 0.2% n Forecasts - reflecting an assumption of modest price headwinds and an