FSN E-Commerce Ventures (NYKAA IN) Upgrade to Buy: Growth and margin in cart

Research evidence excerpt

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (NYKAA IN) Upgrade to Buy: Growth and margin in cart

21 July 2026

FSN E-Commerce EquitiesSpecialty Retail

Ventures (NYKAA IN)

Upgrade to Buy: Growth and margin in cart India

◆ Nykaa remains an undisputed leader in online BPC and is

UPGRADE TO BUY

gaining share in fashion. Growth outlook highest in coverage

◆ Raise estimates (12% for FY28e EBITDA) driven by margin TARGET PRICE (INR) PREVIOUS TARGET (INR)

delivery conviction in BPC and higher fashion growth 380.00 273.00

◆ Upgrade to Buy (from Hold); TP INR380 (from INR273) on SHARE PRICE (INR) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

EV/EBITDA, aligning method with other new age companies 323.50 +17.5%

(as of 20 Jul 2026)

BPC business remains an undisputed leader, see comfort on margins: Nykaa’s MARKET DATA

beauty and personal care (BPC) platform remains an undisputed leader in the online Market cap (INRm) 926,468 Free float 8% Market cap (USDm) 9,606 BBG NYKAA IN

BPC segment. Competitive intensity has also normalised (Exhibit 5), making a case 3m ADTV (USDm) 24 RIC FSNE.NS

for Nykaa to keep increasing market share. We see the company continuing to recruit

FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (INR)

new customers (AUTC of 41m in FY30e, vs 20m in FY26; current TAM is c50m) Year to 03/2026a 03/2027e 03/2028e 03/2029e

driving a CAGR of 24% in gross merchandise value (GMV) over FY26-30e. We HSBC EPS 0.83 1.68 2.89 4.50

HSBC EPS (prev) 0.83 1.61 2.50 3.79

expect Nykaa’s implied online market share to increase to 32% by FY31e from 26% Change (%) 0.0 4.6 15.5 18.6

in FY26 (based on gross merchandise value [GMV]). We also expect Nykaa to Consensus EPS 0.72 1.67 2.74 4.10

PE (x) 387.4 192.6 111.9 72.0

deliver margin improvement driven by a) higher share of House of Brands b) Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0