The Pulse of the Market

Research evidence excerpt

The Pulse of the Market

in the rest of the index. But

this week we’re seeing a deceleration in the rate of upward revisions for both cohorts (page 36). Outside of the US, we’ve also seen a bit of slippage on this stat for Canada and Australia.

While rotation and broadening has been a theme in recent trading in the US equity market, what we’re seeing in these stats may point to the emergence of more generalized softness at the start the week on the earnings

front. We’ll keep an eye on these stats to see if the signal changes in the weeks ahead.

Early Earnings Commentary Highlights A Cautiously Optimistic Tone, Consumer Resiliency, And Complicated AI Impacts

As is our custom, last week we read through the companies that reported last week (plus a few from the prior week). See pages 45-50 for notable quotes. So far, we’ve heard mostly from Financials, which provide an

important bigger picture starting point. As we get more sector diversity in the weeks ahead, the narrative around reporting season will evolve, but here is what we’ve picked up on so far:

▪ On the broader macro backdrop, the tone was cautiously optimistic. Companies noted the resiliency of both corporates and consumers and emphasized strong and resilient demand trends and a continuation of the

status quo. While the overall backdrop was acknowledged as both dynamic and uncertain, the economic backdrop was generally described as constructive and stable with a durable consumer, solid manufacturing, no

slowdown in health care procedure volumes, and tailwinds from AI alluded to. Some investment banks highlighted strength in capital markets activity including trading and dealmaking. A few also emphasized they were

being mindful of risks that might emerge suddenly or be difficult to identify.