2Q26 Review: Growth Trends Appear Sustainable, but NIM Upside is Limited

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Review: Growth Trends Appear Sustainable, but NIM Upside is Limited

C O M PA N Y N O T E

J u l y 2 1 , 2 0 2 6

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp. (AUB) Overweight

CONCLUSION PRICE: US$42.03

Guide Lowered, but Only to Where Estimates Already Were, Fwd Profitability TARGET: US$47.00

Remains Attractive - AUB reported solid results in 2Q26 (Core EPS $0.94 vs. PSCe ~12x our 2027E EPS

$0.92), but for the second straight quarter lowered their guidance for the full-year. That

said, analysts were already modeling at the lower-end of the range, so there should Stephen Scouten, CFA

Managing Director, Piper Sandler & Co.be no real pressure on estimates. Mgmt sees their deposit mix shifting to more higher- 404 442-2882, stephen.scouten@psc.com

cost products, limiting potential NII/NIM upside. Still, growth trends appear positive, the

Jackson Andrew

company reiterated their interest in using its full approved buyback, and profitability remains Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

sound with an ROA/PPNR ROA of ~1.7%/2.0%. Our estimates are largely unchanged, with 404 442-2859, jackson.andrew@psc.com

2026/7E's up to $3.73/$3.95 and our new PT is $47 now ~12x our 2027E, up slightly as Ashley Aloupis

we gain further clarity on fwd earnings and potential downside revisions from here seems Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

unlikely. 212 466-7974, ashley.aloupis@psc.com

Changes Previous Current

• Margin Upside Limited Due to Deposit Mix Shift - 2Q26 reported margin was largely Rating — Overweight

in line with consensus, increasing 9 bps q/q to 3.94%, while core NIM excluding accretion Price Tgt US$46.00 US$47.00

impact was up 1 bp q/q to 3.46%. NII increased 4% q/q to ~$330M in 2Q26, which was FY26E EPS US$3.70 US$3.73

also in line with the consensus number.