2Q26 First Look: Personal & Overseas Lines Stand Out

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 First Look: Personal & Overseas Lines Stand Out

issipate going forward.

Price Performance - 1 Year

• Underwriting results better than expected: The combined ratio was 83.8% versus USD380

our estimate of 85.6%, consensus of 85.8% as compared to 85.6% a year ago. The

underlying combined ratio was 82.2% versus our 82.3% estimate, consensus of 82.6% 360

as compared to 82.3% a year ago. Catastrophe losses were 4.0% versus our estimate of 340

4.7%, consensus of 4.8% as compared to 5.6% a year ago. Reserve development was 320

2.4 points favorable versus our 1.5 points favorable estimate, consensus of 1.6 points 300

favorable as compared to 2.2 points favorable a year ago. 280

• Segment results were better than expected overall: Overall segment results were 240

$0.46 better than we expected. NA Commercial was ($0.50) worse than we expected. Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26 Jul-26

Personal lines was $0.70 better than expected. Agriculture was ($0.08) worse. Overseas Source: Bloomberg

General was $0.43 better. Global Reinsurance was $0.14 better. Corporate was ($0.19)

worse. Life insurance was ($0.05) worse. Taxes and other items were worse than we

expected.

• Net premiums written were worse than expected: Property-casualty net premiums

written (NPW) increased 3.0% to $12.8 billion versus our estimate for an increase of

5.6% to $13.1 billion, consensus of $13.0 billion as compared to $12.4 billion in the prior

year period. A notable decline in NA commercial accounts for much of the difference

in our opinion.

• Net investment income was better than expected: Reported net investment income

increased 11.4% to $1.88 billion versus our estimate for an increase of 8.5% to $1.83

billion, consensus of $1.84 billion, as compared to $1.69 billion in the prior year period.