Statsig Deal Looks Better Than the Market Initially Gave It Credit For

Research evidence excerpt

Statsig Deal Looks Better Than the Market Initially Gave It Credit For

C O M PA N Y N O T E

J u l y 2 1 , 2 0 2 6

Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) Overweight

CONCLUSION PRICE: US$9.83

AMPL's stock declined on the 1Q26 print due to the announcement around a strategic TARGET: US$11.00

partnership with Statsig (Statsig bought by OpenAI for $1.1B in Sep 2025) and AMPL's 14x CY30E EV/FCF, discounted back 3 years

op mgn guide reduction (timing mismatch between Statsig costs vs. revenue; 1Q26 recap by 20%. This assumes $182M cash and 158M

here). Despite being publicly framed as a partnership, we believe this was really an shares.

acquisition where AMPL got best-in-class IP, brand, and customer contracts. We believe

Billy Fitzsimmons, CFAinvestors have come around to appreciating Statsig as a TAM expander. Looking forward, Sr. Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

we are increasing our PT to $11 due to 1) a material uptick in 2Q AMPL checks (+62% 312 281-3438, billy.fitzsimmons@psc.com

net results vs. +27% last quarter; see: here) and 2) our belief that Statsig could potentially J.R. Herrera

be more valuable than the initially disclosed $16M in ARR. The initial $16M ARR does not Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

include contracts with termination for convenience clauses and any cross-selling (AMPL 503 275-8314, jr.herrera@psc.com

into Statsig or vice versa) would be incremental. Hannah Rudoff

Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

• A Partnership in Name, an Acquisition in Substance. AMPL received the core 503 275-8313, hannah.rudoff@psc.com

elements of an acquisition: Statsig’s intellectual property, brand, and customer contracts. Changes Previous Current

AMPL does not receive the Statsig team or OpenAI’s own contract with Statsig, but it Rating — Overweight