Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc.: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc.: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Neptune- NeptuneInsurance Holdings,InsuranceInc. (NP.N)Holdings, Inc. (NP.N)

Execute on Growth While Maintaining Strong Margins

PRICE TARGET $31.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

Valuation is based on a EV/EBITDA analysis where we apply a 38.4x multiple to our FY27E The investment thesis for Neptune revolves

Adj. EBITDA estimate (derived from comparable peer multiples). Our PT implies a premium around its ability to continue taking share of

to a peer multiple average of 16.4x FY27E EV/EBITDA. the large flood insurance market and

leveraging technology to outperform peers

$33.33 and maintain the company’s strong margin

Consensus Price Target Distribution $29.00 $39.00 profile.

MS PT

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Consensus Rating Distribution

57% Overweight

RISK REWARD CHART 43% Equal-weight

0% Underweight

USD MS Rating

$41.00$41.00(+36.67%)$41.00(+36.67%)(+36.67%)

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Risk Reward Themes

30 $30.00$30.00$30.00 $31.00$31.00(+3.33%)$31.00(+3.33%)(+3.33%) Disruption: Positive

New Data Era: Positive

Technology Diffusion: Positive

20 View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

10 $14.00$14.00(-53.33%)$14.00(-53.33%)(-53.33%)

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

BULL CASE $41.00 BASE CASE $31.00 BEAR CASE $14.00

46.1x 2027e Bull Case Adj. EBITDA 38.4x 2027e Base Case Adj. EBITDA 20.2x 2027e Base Case Adj. EBITDA

2027e: Growth Accelerates 2027e: Trend Continues 2027e: Lackluster Growth and Margin

Headwinds

Premium in Force Growth YoY: 22.0% Premium in Force Growth YoY: 16.0%

Premium in Force Growth YoY: 14.0%