ECB Review: Eyes on the Tide, Swimming Ring in Hand

Research evidence excerpt

ECB Review: Eyes on the Tide, Swimming Ring in Hand

Idea

July 23, 2026 05:04 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.+MECB Review | Europe Jens Eisenschmidt

Chief Europe Economist

Eyes on the Tide, Swimming Jens.Eisenschmidt@morganstanley.comJean-Francois Ouvrard +49 69-21662817

Deputy Chief European Economist

Jean-Francois.Ouvrard@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662813

Ring in Hand Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Chiara Zangarelli

As expected, the ECB kept rates on hold today. Upside risks to Economist

Chiara.Zangarelli@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3644

inflation and downside risks to growth were flagged. Barring a

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.+

large decline in commodity prices, resilient growth and inflation Gabriela Silova

risks are likely to lead the ECB to hike in September Economist

Gabriela.Silova@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662832

Monetary Policy | Eyeing a September hike: As expected, the ECB remained on Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

hold today. The policy paragraph remained largely unchanged and data will Skander Garchi Casal

determine the next steps. As we had expected, the ECB made explicit reference to Economist

Skander.Garchi.Casal@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0034

the baseline scenario from June as the recent rally in commodity prices makes this

the most fitting for now. Our call remains firmly for a hike in September. A hold

Claire A Thuerwaechter

would require significantly lower energy prices as well as signs that the June Economist

projections were too pessimistic on inflation and too optimistic on growth. Claire.Thuerwaechter@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662842

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

What after September? Our baseline is the ECB on hold after September as we

Luca Salford