Range Resources 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Pristine Upstream as Usual, But Surprisingly Flat Footed on Marketing and Midstream Optimization

Research evidence excerpt

Range Resources 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Pristine Upstream as Usual, But Surprisingly Flat Footed on Marketing and Midstream Optimization

ne, although

CFO Scucchi did highlight the company’s optionality to do this in the future. Recall Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

that at JPM’s recent Natural Resources conference (see link), Antero Resources Adj. EPS ($)

(AR) highlighted the potential to boost margins by $0.20 per Mcfe (~$300mm per 2025A 2026E 2027E

annum) largely by optimizing its FT portfolio. Q1 0.96 1.52A 1.16

Q2 0.66 0.79A 0.52

Q3 0.57 0.60 0.67

In conjunction with the 2Q26 print, RRC raised its in-basin demand case to 43-49 Q4 0.82 0.79 0.95

Bcf/d from 43-46 Bcf/d. One of the key messages from management was RRC's FY 3.00 3.69 3.29

optionality to support robust production growth beyond 2027 if there is a call on

incremental in basin gas supply given its inventory durability. CEO Degner noted Style Exposure

the potential to shift to a program that included 2 dedicated drilling rigs and 2 frac

crews vs. 1.5 rigs/frac crews today. RRC's marketing team continues to engage

with data center and power customers for supply deals, including projects that

already have a subset of producer supply deals inked already.

RRC reduced its full-year natural gas differential guidance by $0.025 per Mcf at

the mid-point to a range of 35c to 40c per Mcf below NYMEX and also increased

its expected NGL premium to $2.25 per bbl above Mont Belvieu vs. $1.88 per bbl

previously, but the updated guide, including for natural gas and NGL price

realizations, was largely in line with our forecast. After updating our model, we

now forecast 2.37 Bcfe/d of FY26 volumes, with a production cadence of 2.45

Bcfe/d for 3Q and 2.54 Bcfe/d for 4Q. We project $676mm of total capex this year,