Union Pacific First Look at 2Q26 Earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Union Pacific First Look at 2Q26 Earnings

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

23 July 2026

Union Pacific Neutral

UNP, UNP US

First Look at 2Q26 Earnings Price (22 Jul 26):$292.56

Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

Initial View – Neutral. We expect UNP to have a neutral reaction to the 2Q26 Shipping

earnings beat considering expectations were rising into the print as the network Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

continued to post solid operating metrics and volumes. Each rail discloses the (1-212) 622-1023

impact of fuel a bit differently, and we expect the significant EPS tailwind at UP brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

this quarter will dilute the headline beat, especially when compared to CSX, which Grady Carr

disclosed a negative fuel lag. The improving volume outlook is an encouraging (1-212) 622-1251

grady.carr@jpmchase.com

sign that service can drive growth, and we look for further details on 2H26 mix

Brandon Wexler

during the call. After a surprising announcement with CN last night to secure their

(1-212) 622-1956

support for the UP/NS merger, we expect a significant amount of time will be brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

devoted to the application and expected timeline with the deadline to fill the J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

remaining supplemental information approaching on July 27.

• Higher EPS guide meets consensus, volume outlook improving. UP raised

the earnings growth target to HSD this year (from MSD), which is consistent

with consensus expectations but likely falls short of the buy-side bar, which had

been raised into the quarter. The outlook for improving customer demand is a

positive considering the company is usually conservative when raising the

volume guide, even in qualitative terms. UP’s outlook for 2H26 is not a direct