Admiral Group Plc Refreshing estimates ahead of 1H26 results

Research evidence excerpt

Admiral Group Plc Refreshing estimates ahead of 1H26 results

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

23 July 2026

Admiral Group Plc Underweight

ADML.L, ADM LN

Refreshing estimates ahead of 1H26 results Price (22 Jul 26):3,546p

▲Price Target (Dec-27):3,100p

Prior (Dec-27):2,750p

Ahead of Admiral’s 1H26 results on 6th August, we refresh our estimates for the

company. For 1H26 results, we expect PBT of £458m, a 12% reduction from 1H25. European Insurance

We forecast an interim total dividend of 84.8p of which 73.1p is the regular and Kamran M Hossain AC

11.7p is the special dividend. We also include a £50m share buyback assumption (44-20) 3493-3780

in our forecasts at the 1H26 stage. kamran.hossain@jpmorgan.com

Nadia Claressa

Admiral has a strong track record of navigating the UK motor market well (44-20) 7134-7613

across all cycles. Despite this undoubted quality, we remain cautious on the name nadia.claressa@jpmorgan.com

given: 1) Recent exuberance on UK motor insurance pricing data, despite the Farooq Hanif

absolute price levels in the latest ONS data being 8% below the peak in 2024 while (44 207) 742-8091

farooq.hanif@jpmorgan.com

claims inflation continues to rise across this period; 2) Earnings ambitions in line

Bingdi Fan, CFA

with composite peers but at a far higher valuation; 3) Earnings will rely on utilising

(44-20) 7742-5336

excess reserve strength built up in the good years for UK motor insurance. bingdi.fan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Changing estimates and PT – remain UW. We update our estimates for Admiral

with our 2026E PBT increasing 2% and 2027-28E increasing 6% and 7% Specialist Sales contact details:

respectively due to higher revenue assumptions than our previous forecasts. We Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales -