Brazil Retail Webinar Feedback - Retail Development Institute (IDV)

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Retail Webinar Feedback - Retail Development Institute (IDV)

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

23 July 2026

Brazil Retail

Webinar Feedback - Retail Development Institute (IDV)

We hosted Mr. Jorge Gonçalves Filho, President of the Brazilian Retail LatAm Retail & Healthcare

ACDevelopment Institute (IDV) - an institution that represents +65 retailers Joseph Giordano

nationwide that boast +R$780bn in aggregated annual sales (~30% of the industry (55-11) 4950-3020

by our estimates) across different categories. The main takeaways from the joseph.giordano@jpmorgan.com

meeting are: 1) Food retail should continue to underperform the apparel sector Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

while drug retail resiliency remains; 2) Bets should continue to pressure disposable Nicolas Larrain

income as well as advertising costs for retailers; and 3) taxation remains a key (55-11) 4950-3472

nicolas.larrain@jpmorgan.com

theme following the “Remessa Conforme” changes and ahead of a broader tax Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

reform. Please see below the main topics discussed.

Guilherme A. Vilela, CFA

• IAV - Retail Sales Indicator. Despite a 0.8% decline in retail sales in May (55-11)guilherme.a.vilela@jpmorgan.com4950-3059

2026, the IDV forecasts nominal growth in the subsequent months (June, July, Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

and August) of 3.7%, 3.1% and 1.3%, respectively. However, when we Giovanni Vescovi

consider the inflation rate, it should represent a contraction in real terms y/y of (55-11) 4950-2901

-1.1%, -1.7% and -3.7%, respectively. Nevertheless, the updated macro giovanni.vescovi@jpmchase.com

environment (household leverage, upcoming elections, and cross border Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

competition) drove May to come in short of expectations (-0.8% actual, vs Froylan Mendez