Gruma: 2Q26: First Impressions

Research evidence excerpt

Gruma: 2Q26: First Impressions

Barclays | Gruma

2Q26e Income Statement vs. 2Q26 (Barclay 2Q25 1Q26 YoY QoQ Highlights (in US$mn) estimate s)

Net Margin 7.2% 8.1% 8.4% 6.2% (117) 100 (89)

Source: Company Reports, Barclays Research

Regional Highlights/Lowlights

U.S.: Volumes declined 3% YoY, coming in line with our estimate, reflecting lower volumes in

food service and retail, with the company underscoring standard product weakness. The softer

volume backdrop weighed on operating leverage in the quarter, contributing to margin

compression of ~260bps on the EBITDA level.

Mexico: Volumes were flat YoY, also in line with our model, even when lapping greater volumes

sold to government programs last year. Overall sales were down 1%; COGS declines were mostly

offset with SG&A increases, leading to a 20bps increase in EBITDA margin.

Europe: Volumes were flat YoY and a ~4% miss vs our estimate, as continued strength in tortilla

and retail expansion was offset by weaker demand in corn milling. Despite the volume shortfall,

sales increased 5% YoY and came in broadly in line with our forecast, supported by a stronger

mix favoring retail tortilla over foodservice and a greater contribution from the tortilla business.

Profitability exceeded expectations, with EBITDA of $21mn increasing 17% YoY and coming just

ahead of estimate, while EBITDA margin expanded 160bps YoY to 14.8%, driven by favorable mix

and improved business composition more than offset higher raw material, labor, and

distribution costs.

Asia & Oceania: Volumes increased 4% YoY and were in line with our estimate, supported by

positive performance across the Asian operations and continued strength in Australia. Sales

increased 15% YoY and were ahead of our forecast, reflecting a richer sales mix in Australia and