Equinor: Beyond the commodity tailwind

Research evidence excerpt

Equinor: Beyond the commodity tailwind

Equity Research

European Integrated Energy

22 July 2026

Equinor

Beyond the commodity tailwind

Given Equinor's higher beta to commodity prices, we see

near-term share performance driven by macro and

O&G prices. Longer term, a re-rating depends on successful EQNR.OL/EQNR NO UNDERWEIGHT Unchanged

delivery of its upstream growth projects and power portfolio, European Integrated Energy POSITIVE

which could strengthen the balance sheet and support higher Unchanged

distribution. Price Target NOKUnchanged330.00

Price (21-Jul-26) NOK 364.40

We believe macro events and commodity price movements, especially European gas prices, are Potential Upside/Downside -9.4%

likely to drive Equinor's share price in the near term as the company deliberately chooses to Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

have large spot gas price exposure and has high beta to commodity prices.

Market Cap (NOK mn) 871188

Exceptional oil and gas prices, combined with a $1.9bn working capital release this quarter,

Shares Outstanding (mn) 2390.75

translated to strong cashflow in Q2, and helped Equinor to deleverage very quickly to a 10.4%

Free Float (%) 32.29

net debt ratio, from 18% in 4Q25. This gives the company a good buffer to pay a delayed cash

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 3.5

tax later in 2H26 and 1H27, and keep net debt ratio flat at 10-11% by end of 2026, on our

Dividend Yield (%) 4.00

estimates (with $80/bl oil assumption).

Return on Equity TTM (%) 12.36

Current BVPS (NOK) 17.04Into 2027, and over the longer term, a stronger balance sheet is a good starting point, in our

Source: Bloomberg

view, and a re-rating will likely depend on the successful and on-budget execution of the

company's upstream growth projects, alongside better delivery from Equinor's new Power