U.S. Machinery & Construction: Fifteen Highly Watched Charts: Q2’26 Edition

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Machinery & Construction: Fifteen Highly Watched Charts: Q2’26 Edition

NA that paired with macro

factors (rates, policy, etc) could drive the domestic market to lead other global regions in a

recovery. In Brazil, retail sales have been declining, down DD% across tractor sizes. We've been

more negative than the Street on SA throughout 2025 and into 2026 but the inventory (and

regional) backdrop appears worsening. Wheat prices tend to lead AGCO’s EME organic growth.

Commodity prices have been trending less unfavorable but AGCO's sales have been further

ahead than normal (Fig. 1). We think that gap narrows in the next couple of quarters.

In commercial vehicles, CMI’s HD engine shipments reasonably track Class 8 retail sales

growth. In 2026, orders have been very strong and could portend a stronger 2H (Fig 10). We

see the recent White House proclamation on EPA rules as in line with our base case (and

the companies too). In Q2 net orders were up ~55% for Class 6-7 and ~170 % for Class 8, and

backlogs were up ~105% y/y for Class 8. Retail sales were up modestly but the order trends are

most notable. Investors have been debating whether order strength is from higher freight rates

(driver shortage induced), pre-buy effects, and/or both and in which order. Our long history in

the space is that consumers only purchase when they have capital. Either way it skews more

positive for 2026 builds (sales too) with potential negative consequences in 2027 to truck

demand if purchased ahead. We'd assume time is limited if customers want to have a truck by

YE. We'll be watching cancellations if there's a disconnect between demand vs. regulations

anxiety.

In Aggregates & Cement, TX cement shipments don't have as direct of a tie to our business

vs. priors (Fig.