North America Transportation: The Case For 15-20% Intermodal Yield Growth

Research evidence excerpt

North America Transportation: The Case For 15-20% Intermodal Yield Growth

Equity Research

North America Transportation

22 July 2026

The Case For 15-20% Intermodal

Yield Growth

Street forecasts for single-digit intermodal yield expansion is North America Transportation

inconsistent with the current state of the truckload (TL) POSITIVE

market; with TL contract rates up >20% (incl. fuel), we expect North America Transportation

Brandon R. Oglenski

bullish commentary from rail management teams this week +1 212 526 8903

on intermodal yield potential over the coming quarters. brandon.oglenski@barclays.com

BCI, US

Eric Morgan, CFA

We view current forecasts for intermodal yields as likely overly conservative in the context

+1 212 526 9642

of sharply higher truckload rates. Following J.B. Hunt’s strong 2Q results last week (see eric.morgan@barclays.com

“JBHT: 2Q26, Review” published 15 Jul 2026), we take a closer look at how intermodal yields for BCI, US

both railroads and intermodal marketing companies (IMCs) such as J.B. Hunt have tracked

against truckload rates over time. Our analysis on this subject goes back several years (see

“Seeking Predictive Power in TL Rates” published 2 Oct 2020) and has generally led us to expect

TL contract rates to follow spot on a 5-6 month lag, with intermodal following by another 1-3

quarters. With TL spot rates up more than 50% YoY (ex-fuel) over the past four weeks (see

"Barclays T.R.U.C.K.S." published 20 Jul 2026), forward estimates for much of our freight

coverage are particularly in focus. In this note we refresh historical correlations and plot

consensus forecasts relative to implied future outcomes using lagged regression coefficients.

Our conclusion is that Street yield forecasts in the mid-to-high single digit range for both the