U.S. REITs: 2Q26 Net Lease Preview

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. REITs: 2Q26 Net Lease Preview

Equity Research

22 July 2026

U.S. REITs

2Q26 Net Lease Preview

Soft relative sector performance driven by rising rates, as well

as superior earnings growth elsewhere within REITs, in our

view. Our FY26 estimates haven't changed materially. U.S. REITs NEUTRAL

UnchangedSeparately, we are "refining" our cap rate methodology for

VICI and GLPI, based on isolated tenant-specific issues. U.S. REITs

Richard Hightower

+1 212 526 8768

As we approach the upcoming 2Q26 earnings season for the Net Lease REITs, we are richard.hightower@barclays.com

making de minimis changes to our FY26 and FY27 AFFO/sh estimates (we are + / - in line with BCI, US

BBG Consensus for both years; see Figure 1 & Figure 15). Separately, we have made a variety of Jason Wayne, CFA

applied cap rate adjustments in many cases (mostly increases), with particular emphasis on the +1 212 526 2650

two casino-focused REITs, VICI and GLPI. (See discussion herein.) jason.wayne@barclays.com

BCI, US

Net Lease has been one of the weaker-performing REIT sectors on a trailing 30D/60D/90D basis

Marc Akinbi, CFA

(Figure 4) – partly, in our view, on the group's added sensitivity to interest rates amid a

+1 212 526 6218

steepening yield curve (Figure 9), as well as its (merely) average sector earnings growth relative marc.akinbi@barclays.com

to other, faster-growing REIT sectors (e.g., Lodging, Healthcare, Data Centers, etc.). On the other BCI, US

hand, if market positioning were to shift back towards "risk off" mode, we could see the Net

Lease group outperforming the REIT averages through earnings season and potentially beyond.

Our ratings within Net Lease are unchanged; we remain Overweight EPRT, GLPI, and VICI; Equal

Weight O, FCPT, and ADC; and Underweight WPC and NNN.