Capital One Financial: 2Q26 Earnings Review: Solid Results; Opex Trajectory Remains the Focus

Research evidence excerpt

Capital One Financial: 2Q26 Earnings Review: Solid Results; Opex Trajectory Remains the Focus

Equity Research

U.S. Consumer Finance

22 July 2026

Capital One Financial

2Q26 Earnings Review: Solid

Results; Opex Trajectory Remains

COF OVERWEIGHTthe Focus

Unchanged

Earnings beat on a reserve release and PPNR was roughly in- U.S. Consumer Finance NEUTRAL

line with Street. Overall, our earnings estimates remained Unchanged

relatively unchanged and we reaffirm our Overweight rating. Price Target lowered -0.83% fromUSDUSD240.00242.00

Price (21-Jul-26) USD 206.22

The Key Takeaway: We view yesterday's results as solid, particularly around opex, which came Potential Upside/Downside +16.4%

in better than feared. While management noted that certain investments, including the Brex Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

integration are not yet fully reflected in the opex run rate, this quarter reinforced our confidence

in the company's earnings power and ability to deliver mid-teens EPS growth. Credit remains Market Cap (USD mn) 128329

strong and loan growth continues to improve despite the DFS brownout. Overall, we reiterate Shares Outstanding (mn) 622.29

our Overweight rating. Free Float (%) 98.00

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 4.4

Results: Adjusted EPS of $5.81 beat BARC/Street at $5.34/$4.68 due to lower provisions. PPNR Dividend Yield (%) 1.55

was roughly in-line with Street (<1% lower). NII and NIM were slightly lower than BARC by -1% Return on Equity TTM (%) 3.48

and at 8.01% (vs. BARC 8.03%), respectively. Non-interest income came in better at +6.4%, Current BVPS (USD) 173.50

largely due to higher interchange and partially offset by lower service charges. Domestic card Source: Bloomberg

and overall loan growth was roughly in-line with our estimates. Credit metrics were solid with