China Brokers Sector "1H26 preview: broad-based growth powers Q2 earnings..."

Research evidence excerpt

China Brokers Sector "1H26 preview: broad-based growth powers Q2 earnings..."

Global Research

21 July 2026ab

China Brokers Sector Equities

Hong Kong1H26 preview: broad-based growth powers Q2

earnings acceleration Financial Services

Dennis Bai

Analyst

dennis.bai@ubs.com

UBS-e: Q2 recurring NPAT +76% YoY for listed brokers, accelerating QoQ... +852-3712 2473

We forecast 59% recurring NPAT YoY growth for listed brokers in 1H, implying 76% YoY Wen Chen, CPA

growth in Q2 (vs. Q1: +39% YoY). The QoQ acceleration is driven by stronger market Associate

tailwinds (e.g., A-share equity-linked ADT/MFSL balance/IPO fundraising S1460524120002

+1.3x/63%/1.1x YoY in Q2 vs. +79%/36%/57% in Q1). Fair value gains from STAR and wen.chen@ubs.com

ChiNext investments, alongside overseas growth, should have provided a further +86-21-3866 8259

earnings boost in Q2, particularly for leading brokers. 17 listed brokers have announced

estimated 1H26 results with recurring NPAT surging 86-95% YoY (Figure 117listedbrokershaveanouncedestimated1H26resultswithrecuringNPATsurging86%-95%YoY(UBS-e), UBS-e).

Leading brokers delivered earnings ahead of market expectations, while smaller peers

are likely to report more divergent results.

...main drivers incl. investment, brokerage, IB and interest businesses

(1) Investment. We estimate investment income increased 52%/70% YoY/QoQ in Q2.

Beyond a more supportive market backdrop (Figure 4MarketconditionsimprovednotablyinQ26,ralyintechequitiesahighlight), a sharp rally in CN tech equities

likely drove substantial mark-to-market gains on STAR and ChiNext investments,

including both co-investment and proprietary portfolios. Our covered leading brokers

are well positioned to benefit from a robust pipeline of high-profile IPO candidates