Global Economics & Strategy "Deep Speak: An AI-driven read on tone shifts..."

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Global Economics & Strategy "Deep Speak: An AI-driven read on tone shifts..."

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Global Economics & Strategy Economics

GlobalDeep Speak: An AI-driven read on tone shifts at

the Fed, ECB and BoJ Elena Amoruso

Strategist

elena.amoruso@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0239

Arend Kapteyn A new LLM-based tracker of central bank sentiment and thematic shifts

Economist

We developed an AI-based framework to measure policy tone for the Fed, ECB, and arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

BoJ. Using LLMs, we analyze policy-relevant remarks in speeches, interviews and +44-20-7567 0531

press conferences and score them on a hawkish/dovish scale, offering insights into

sentiment shifts as well as thematic drivers and speakers' contributions. Updated

daily, the dataset spans over two decades and is accessible via an interactive

dashboard and a Python API (>Access Dataset).

Fed: Tone breaks into hawkish territory

After stalling through June, Fed communication has taken a hawkish turn in recent

weeks, lifting net tone above the neutral line for the first time since June 2025 (Figure 1Fed

andECBfirmer,BoJ'sstalpersists and Figure 2 AlatehawkishspikeliftsFedtoneintohawkishteritory). The shift has been led by a renewed hawkish impulse in inflation

communication, which has been moving broadly in lockstep with core PCE in recent

months (Figure 5InflationtonehasbenmovinginlockstepswithCorePCE),while firmer tone on growth and the labour market has provided little

offset. Interest-rate guidance, however, remains broadly flat and has yet to offer a strong

policy signal (Figure 3InflationreasertsitselfasthedominantdriverofFedtone and Figure 4Hawkishshiftledbyinflationandreinforcedbyfirmergrowthandlabortone). At the speaker level, Waller’s remarks account for