Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot "Hormuz flows on a bumpy..."

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot "Hormuz flows on a bumpy..."

Global Oil Market

UBS Scenario Oil price forecast ($/bbl)

We expect Brent to stay at $80/bbl on average over the rest of

the year. While some flows through the Strait of Hormuz Oil price fore cast ($/ bbl)

resumed in June/early July, they have dropped again this month

because of renewed strikes and a full return to normal will likely

depend on resolving outstanding issues following the MoU.

Even if a final agreement is reached, normalisation would be

gradual. We also believe that the market is likely to factor in a

structurally higher risk premium to a certain extent, as tensions

are likely to linger. A limited supply response and the need to

rebuild inventories should also support prices in 2027. Looking Source: Datastream, UBS estimates.

further out, rising efficiency and EVs' increasing impact should

see demand growth slow sharply and peak oil reached by 2030,

although this is likely to be followed by a long plateau rather

than a sharp drop. We expect global spare capacity to decline as

non-OPEC supply growth slows down more rapidly than oil

demand growth, limiting the negative impact on prices and

keeping long-term marginal cost around $75/bbl

Upside price scenarios UBS S/D balance and implied stock change (Mb/d)

In the near term, we see the main potential upside risk coming

from a breakdown of negotiations and further escalation, mpl

pushing oil prices back to ~$100+/bbl. If major oil infrastructure d i

in the region is targeted and the conflict extends beyond the

summer, prices could spike to $120+/bbl. This would drive more an

severe demand destruction, with limited OPEC+ ability to act.

While such a price may be short-lived, a structurally higher risk nce