European Energy "What to watch during 2Q26 results?" Stone

Research evidence excerpt

European Energy "What to watch during 2Q26 results?" Stone

Global Research

21 July 2026ab

European Energy Equities

Europe including UKWhat to watch during 2Q26 results?

Energy

Joshua Stone

Consensus numbers are up 5% since the release of trading statements driven Analyst

mainly by indications of better liquids trading and a marking-to-market higher joshua.stone@ubs.com

of refining margins. Our updated 2Q26 estimates are an average 5% ahead of +44-20-7901 5588

consensus with the strength of the downstream likely to remain a key feature Henri Patricot, CFA

during results. The shares have reacted positively to recent geopolitical events, Analyst

but positioning remains broadly neutral with the sector discounting an average henri.patricot@ubs.com

oil price of ~$70/bl at normalised refining margins. +33-14-888 3033

Anna Kishmariya

BP - deleveraging begins, earnings support from trading Analyst

anna.kishmariya@ubs.com

Consensus numbers are up 22% since the beginning of July reflecting indications of +44-20-7568 7999

better-than-expected oil trading results. We remain 15% above consensus on net

income led by the downstream. BP has already indicated net debt (company definition) Nayoung Kim

Analystof $22-23bn with leverage set to decline 4pp q/q to 43% (UBS definition). We expect an

nayoung.kim@ubs.com

update on cost savings alongside the results presentation. Results release: 4 August. +44-20-7568 4010

Shell - downstream shines, focus turns back to buybacks Ellinor Cederstroem Palliotto

Associate Analyst

Indications of better trading and higher volumes have driven an 11% increase to ellinor-cederstroem.palliotto@ubs.com

consensus net income, and we are 6% above the street led by the downstream. We +44-20-7567 1823