First Read: SCB X "Financial targets are in line, balance sheet cleanup..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: SCB X "Financial targets are in line, balance sheet cleanup..."

a JVAMC, in line with peers. In our view, this suggests

12/27E 13.39 13.70 2 -

credit costs may remain elevated, while its earnings growth profile is likely to be 12/28E 13.68 13.99 2 -

comparable to peers in 2026-27E.

Peach Patharavanakul

Continue enhancing the Gen-2 loan risk management model Analyst

peach.patharavanakul@ubs.com

Auto X remains in the process of revamping its credit risk management model under the

+662-613 5717

new management team, which continues to observe elevated NPL levels. Card X’s loan

yield declined due to the transfer of the high-end card portfolio from the bank. Monix

and Abacus may not cannibalize Bank X’s business, as Bank X will offer a range of loan

products.

Valuation methodology changed from P/B to PE; PT raised to Bt152

As noted in our 25-June report, sustainable higher dividends and political stability could

support capital inflows into Thai banks versus the SET Index. Investors may consider a

valuation framework incorporating dividend expectations. We raise our price target to

Bt152 from Bt135 (fig 1), reflecting our 2026-28E 1% average earnings revision to fine

tune the H126 result and a shift from P/BV-based to PE-based valuation, better capturing

capital return potential. Despite sub-par profit growth outlook to peers, we estimate

SCB can maintain a 6-7% dividend yield in 2026-27E. We thus rate SCB a Neutral.

Highlights (Btm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 170,686 171,773 171,168 162,648 166,370 167,004 168,379 173,681

Pre-tax profit 55,305 56,203 60,129 56,089 59,554 60,025 61,867 66,198

Net earnings (reported) 43,521 43,943 47,488 42,882 46,145 47,113 49,186 52,652