SCG Packaging PCL "Q226 results beat, but recovery largely priced in" (Neutral)

Research evidence excerpt

SCG Packaging PCL "Q226 results beat, but recovery largely priced in" (Neutral)

ietnam and Indonesia. The key

From To % ch Cons.

highlight was Fajar's return to profitability with net profit at Rp107bn in Q226 vs. a 12/26E 0.95 1.77 87 1.40

Rp19bn loss in Q126 (a drag on group earnings since Q322). This has allowed Fajar to 12/27E 1.01 1.82 81 1.52

increase selling price to US$399/t in Q226 from US$380/t in Q126, closer to the regional 12/28E 1.10 1.93 76 1.68

level. Also, lower gas costs after negotiations at end-2025 should help SCGP maintain

cost discipline. Warayut Luangmettakul, CFA

Analyst

warayut.luangmettakul@ubs.com

H226E to remain resilient

+662-613 5753

We expect earnings momentum to remain resilient in H226E. While higher raw material

Sharon Dingcosts could begin to flow through the inventory cycle, profitability should remain healthy

supported by ongoing cost optimisation and the sustained turnaround at Fajar. Industry sharon.ding@ubs.com

pricing discipline in Indonesia appears to have improved, based on the operating +852-2971 6284

environment observed by UBS Indonesia and from management commentary at the

Timothy Handerson

Q226 analysts' meeting. Management expects local sourcing capability (local raw

material prices appear to be trending down) to help manage imported RCP costs. timothy.handerson@ubs.com

+62-21-2554 5000

Valuation: recovery largely reflected in the price

SCGP trades at 1.6x 12-month forward P/BV, broadly in line with our expected ROE

recovery to 10% based on its historical P/BV-ROE relationship, but at a premium to

regional peers (0.5x on average).

Highlights (Btm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 129,398 132,784 124,374 132,665 135,173 138,496 141,472 144,516