Global Tobacco "China Vapour Exports to June 2026" Baig

Research evidence excerpt

Global Tobacco "China Vapour Exports to June 2026" Baig

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

Global Tobacco Equities

AmericasChina Vapour Exports to June 2026

Tobacco

Faham Baig

China exports confirm slowing vapour growth; positive for tobacco companies Analyst

Our monthly vapour volume export tracker, using data from China Customs, helps faham.baig@ubs.com

monitor the progress of the vapour category. Most vapour products are manufactured in +44-20-7568 3966

China, including those by non-tobacco manufacturers that have a >90% category share Emily Teo

(UBSe). In 2025, UBS Tobacco Transformation Model estimates vapour volumes grew c Associate Analyst

+20% (accounting for c10% of total nicotine), but retail sales were broadly flat at emily-s.teo@ubs.com

$38bn. As we first wrote here and recently observed on our Asia Field Trip here, the +44-20-7567 1002

vapour category's growth is slowing (largely due to penetration beginning to plateau in Christine Peng, CFA

key markets, and regulatory measures from Chinese authorities), which is easing the Analyst

negative substitution impact on tobacco volumes. We currently expect +11% global christine-y.peng@ubs.com

vapour volume growth this year. NB: data is in kilograms (which is likely understating +852-2971 7571

consumption growth due to a shift towards disposables with larger liquid capacity);

vapes could be exported under different descriptions (e.g. batteries and electronics)

which is not captured; and some production is being shifted overseas (e.g. South East

Asia).

Global vapour exports -0.1% in Jun'26 (last 6m) vs -7.0% in May'26

Using a six-month moving average (in an attempt to smooth for inventory movements),

we calculate vapour volumes (kilograms) declined -0.1% in June, vs -7.0% in May, -