HOLT Consumer "Luxury Momentum Is Building, But Gems May Be Hard To Find"...

Research evidence excerpt

HOLT Consumer "Luxury Momentum Is Building, But Gems May Be Hard To Find"...

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

HOLT Consumer Equities

GlobalLuxury Momentum Is Building, But Gems May Be

Hard To Find Consumer, Cyclical

Steffen Spillecke, CFA

HOLT Sector Specialist

steffen.spillecke@ubs.com

Increased Focus on Luxury as Industry Momentum Improves +44-20-7883 6549

Jenny Huang

After a difficult start to the year, Global Luxury has re-emerged as a key topic in recent HOLT Sector Specialist

investor discussions, supported by a notable improvement in industry momentum since jenny.huang@ubs.com

the initial US-Iran ceasefire, with 3-month CFROI Revisions improving sequentially (Fig 1) +44-20-7567 3075

and industry Revisions Breadth reaching its highest level since February 2025 in June (Fig Erica Smith

2). While uncertainty remains over the sustainability of the Middle East ceasefire, any HOLT Sector Specialist

signs of improving demand trends, together with positive spillovers from the AI-driven erica.smith@ubs.com

wealth effect across regions, particularly in Asia and the US, could provide a meaningful +1-212-538 9155

(1)

tailwind for the industry. Ashley Minns

Figure 1: Global Luxury Aggregate CFROI Revisions (Weighted) ashley.minns@ubs.com

+1-212-713 8120

evi

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Source: UBS HOLT

Figure 2: Global Luxury Aggregate CFROI Revision Breadth

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e CFROI Revision Breadth

While recent momentum has improved across the broader industry, the picture is more

nuanced at the individual company level (Fig 3). 3-month CFROI Revisions have been

strongest among the US Premium Apparel names, with Ralph Lauren screening as the

most long-crowded vs global peers. In Europe, Richemont and LVMH have seen the