Columbia Sportswear Company "UBS Evidence Lab inside: 2Q26 Preview: We See..."

Research evidence excerpt

Columbia Sportswear Company "UBS Evidence Lab inside: 2Q26 Preview: We See..."

arish. We believe the

From To % ch Cons.

"bars" for the event include: 1) Q2 sales and EPS beats, 2) FY26 EPS outlook

Q1 0.65 0.65 0 0.65

reaffirmation, and 3) Q3 EPS guidance in-line with the Street’s $1.55 forecast.

Q2 (0.42) (0.38) NM (0.40)

Q3E 1.30 1.28 -1 1.55

Industry and UBS Evidence Lab data point to soft US trends: Q4E 2.03 2.07 2 2.04

The most constructive signals is Similarweb traffic, which accelerated materially through 12/26E 3.55 3.60 1 3.85

June and increased +22% y/y in the US. Additionally, US observed sales improved versus 12/27E 3.60 3.60 0 4.22

previous quarterly trends, though fell y/y. The main pushback is that estimated US visits, 12/28E 3.75 3.75 -0 4.35

which shows a high correlation to US DTC growth, remained negative and worsened

Mauricio Serna, CFA

modestly versus 1Q. Plus, UBS Evidence Lab's Pricing data indicates Columbia's apparel

Analyst

discount factor increased 170 bps y/y in 2Q26 and intensified in June (> Access Dataset). mauricio.serna@ubs.com

These soft DTC and promotional trends are key reasons our FY26-27 EPS estimates are +1-212-713 9028

6%/15% below consensus. Please find more details inside.

Jay Sole

Valuation: We maintain our $47 price target and Sell rating: jay.sole@ubs.com

Our $47 PT is based on ~13x our $3.75 FY28 EPSe. We raise our FY26 EPSe 1% on +1-212-713 3559

stronger international sales but keep our FY27-28 EPSe. Our multiples analysis indicates Natalie Koltermann

a $47 PT puts COLM's valuation in-line with peers in terms of P/E, P/Sales, and FCF yield. Associate Analyst

We anticipate COLM's EPS growth to come below market expectations, leading to stock natalie.koltermann@ubs.com

underperformance over the NTM. We thus rate COLM Sell.