Honeywell Aerospace Inc "Navigating near-term nuances with upside on the..."

Research evidence excerpt

Honeywell Aerospace Inc "Navigating near-term nuances with upside on the..."

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From To % ch Cons.

negating the slowdown in aftermarket growth we anticipate for the market more

Q1 - 2.04 - -

broadly. HON AM has grown slower than peers - 200bps past three and ten year average

Q2E - 2.01 - 2.12

- which we expect will continue given the 3:1 AM:OE ratio relative to the 1.5:1 peer Q3E - 2.17 - 2.29

average (lower replenishment rate of installed base). Q4E - 2.56 - 2.50

12/26E - 8.78 - 8.88

Margins expanding through mix drag 12/27E - 10.00 - 9.99

HONA has an attractive 25% EBIT margin that we expect will expand gradually over the 12/28E - 11.48 - 11.21

next few years, but increasing OE mix will be a drag and increased investment/R&D

Gavin Parsons

position for long-term growth at the cost of near-term expansion. As those investments Analyst

pay off we model greater margin expansion later this decade, which could accelerate on gavin.parsons@ubs.com

supply chain improvement. We see 150bps EBIT margin expansion 2026 to 2030, +1-212-713 2389

weighted toward 2029/2030, but with less upside opportunity than peers.

Joao Santos

Associate Analyst

Valuation: discount to peers tracks below average growth joao.santos@ubs.com

Our $231 price target is based on 14.8X 5-8 quarter EV/EBITDA, which reflects a one +1-212-713 1437

standard deviation discount - equivalent to 15% - to the peer average of 17.5X. We see Nicholas Labbadia

HONA growing slower than average, with the gap widening through the end of the Associate Analyst

decade, and investor concerns around the elevated AM:OE weighing on valuation. nicholas.labbadia@ubs.com

HONA currently trades at 15.9X NTM consensus EBITDA and 14.3X our NTM EBITDA. +1-212-713 5573

Highlights (US$m) 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E