US Insurance "2Q26 Earnings Wrap: Week 1 Read Throughs" Meredith

Research evidence excerpt

US Insurance "2Q26 Earnings Wrap: Week 1 Read Throughs" Meredith

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

US Insurance Equities

Americas2Q26 Earnings Wrap: Week 1 Read Throughs

Insurance

Brian Meredith

Updating our estimates for ALL, PGR and TRV following week 1 Analyst

Following week 1 of 2Q26 earnings, we are increasing our 2026E EPS for ALL and TRV, brian.meredith@ubs.com

following lower catastrophe losses disclosed by ALL and the EPS beat for TRV in 2Q26 +1-212-713 2492

driven by better than expected underlying margins in BI and PI. We are lowering our Justin Tucker

estimates for Progressive following lower than expected written premiums and a higher Associate Analyst

than expected underlying loss ratio amid a competitive auto insurance market. On price justin.tucker@ubs.com

targets, TRV goes to $383 (from $350) and PGR to $225 (from $230), while we maintain +1-212-713 2325

ALL at $261. Leandro Leite

Associate Analyst

Trends from week 1 of 2Q26 earnings: leandro.leite@ubs.com

+1-212-882 5559

Commercial lines loss trend more favorable to start 2Q26, while pricing

erodes. TRV materially beat Street estimates, driven by lower catastrophe losses,

stronger favorable reserve development, and better-than-expected underlying

margins. Business Insurance renewal rate decelerated more than expected, with

renewal rates slowing to +1.9% from +3.1% in 1Q26, in part due to a seasonally

high percentage of large commercial property insurance renewing in the quarter.

The impact of competitive large commercial property insurance pricing on renewal

rates is expected to moderate going forward. The better-than-expected underlying

profitability in Business Insurance (BI) was partially explained by benefits from AI

implementation on incurred losses. TRV is an early adopter of AI, and this could