First Read: Wintrust Financial Corporation "2Q26 First Look: Top Line Miss,..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Wintrust Financial Corporation "2Q26 First Look: Top Line Miss,..."

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 3.8%

Forecast dividend yield 1.4%

Forecast stock return 5.2%

Market return assumption 9.2%

Forecast excess return -4.0%

Company Description

Wintrust Financial is a ~$72bn asset financial holding company headquartered in Rosemont,

IL. WTFC operates a differentiated community-bank model across the Chicago, Wisconsin,

Michigan, Indiana, and Florida markets, with 16 separately chartered banks supported by

national specialty businesses including premium finance, mortgage banking, wealth

management, leasing, and restaurant finance.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Our WTFC price target is derived by applying a target P/E multiple on our 2027 EPS. Our target

P/E multiple is informed by the company's historical P/E multiple, its historical multiple vs.

peers, and market multiples for the banking industry. Downside risks include: 1) lower deposit

levels resulting from decreased liquidity levels in the financial system; 2) credit deterioration

and reduced industry-wide loan demand resulting from a potential recession; 3) net interest

margin pressure from additional rate cuts, and 4) lower profitability and capital returns

resulting from a more rigorous regulatory environment. Upside risks include: 1) Enhanced

deposit gathering, loan production, and credit performance resulting from continued

economic growth; 2) net interest margin expansion resulting from a more moderate pace of

rate cuts; and 3) improved profitability and capital return to shareholders resulting from a

friendlier regulatory regime.

First Read: Wintrust Financial Corporation 20 July 2026 ab 3