Schindler (1K) | Hold | Efficiencies now partly offset by cost inflation

Research evidence excerpt

Schindler (1K) | Hold | Efficiencies now partly offset by cost inflation

Schindler Hold | Target Price: CHF275.00

Estimates revised down post Q2 results

After slightly lower-than-expected Q2 results, and accounting for the company's guidance for

2026 and the expected implementation of IFRS 18 as of 2027, we have shaved our estimates as

summarised in the table below:

We have left our organic growth forecasts for both order intake and revenue in 2026 unchanged. Our

revenue growth estimate in local currencies of 2.5% in 2026E, which includes expected organic

revenue growth of 2.3% and an estimated acquisition impact of 0.2%, implies growth of 3.6% (l.c.) in

H2 after 1.4% (l.c.) in H1. As a result, our absolute order intake and revenue forecasts are also

unchanged.

Mainly due to management's guidance of an additional headwind of CHF35m related to input-cost

inflation in 2026, we have trimmed our reported EBIT margin by 10 bps for this year. Against the

backdrop of the company's guidance of an expected impact related to the adoption of IFRS 18, which

will lead to the reclassification of certain financial income and expenses from the financial result to

operating profit, we have shaved our margin estimates by 40 bps in 2027-28E. Hence, our adjusted

and reported EBIT projections are down by 2.1-2.2% on average in 2026-28E.

Raising our net financial result estimates by CHF40m in 2027-28E to account for the expected effect

from the adoption of IFRS 18 as of next year, but maintaining our income tax rate assumptions at

21.0%, our net profit and adjusted EPS numbers are marginally trimmed by 0.5% in 2026-28E.

Table 1:Estimate changes for Schindler - consolidated order intake and P&L

New estimates Old estimates Revisions