Bunzl: Glass half-full in 2026 and half-empty beyond that. Re-instate at Underperform.

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Bunzl: Glass half-full in 2026 and half-empty beyond that. Re-instate at Underperform.

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Bunzl

Glass half-full in 2026 and half-empty

beyond that. Re-instate at Underperform.

Reinstating Coverage: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 2,206 GBp | Price: 2,796 GBp

Glass half-full or half-empty 20 July 2026

Bunzl has re-rated markedly in 2026 with shares up 30% YTD. We do expect consensus Equity

to rise for 2026E (we’re 3% above) but beyond that we highlight a multitude of concerns

that leave us questioning the appropriate multiple to pay for such an M&A driven Tim Ramskill, CFA >>

compounder. The £1.9bn of 2013-26E M&A related charges leaves adjusted EPS Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

flattered by 28% and ROIC 260bps higher. With 19% potential downside to our DCF +44 20 7996 3050

based price objective of 2206p we reinstate coverage with an Underperform rating. tim.ramskill@bofa.com

Virginia Montorsi >>

1) Will near term inflation sustain 2026E EPS upgrades? ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

We anticipate upgrades and our 2026E EPS is 3% above consensus with organic growth 44 20 7996 2921

virginia.montorsi@bofa.com

of 3.4% (consensus 2.3%) with the gap likely to close after H1 results on 1 September.

2) Does the 2026-30E outlook support a further re-rating?

We anticipate a de-rating given medium term concerns including i) the GDP minus Stock Data

nature of organic growth – its largest N Am business has shrunk 16% in real terms since Price (Common / ADR) 2,796 GBp / 18.82 USD

2015; ii) its end markets are growing 3x faster than it achieves, iii) the competition Price Objective 2,206 GBp / 14.90 USD

threat is rising post the merger of Imperial Brady (in 2017 Bunzl was 4.5x its size; that’s Date Established 20-Jul-2026 / 20-Jul-2026