Ag & Materials: 2Q26 Ag Preview: Riding the Hormuz rollercoaster into 2H26

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Ag & Materials: 2Q26 Ag Preview: Riding the Hormuz rollercoaster into 2H26

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Ag & Materials

2Q26 Ag Preview: Riding the Hormuz

rollercoaster into 2H26

Price Objective Change

Nutrient markets remain in flux as strait wreaks havoc 20 July 2026

The conflict with Iran and ongoing logistical challenges through the Strait of Hormuz Equity

(SOH) has created a volatile backdrop for Ag that continued through 2Q and into 3Q. United States

While nitrogen fertilizer prices started 2Q near record highs, they ended materially lower Ag & Materials

as seasonality trumped trade flow challenges. Bearish sentiment was exacerbated by the Matthew DeYoe, CFA

MOU, which has since flipped again, but we temper optimism given stronger 2H product Research Analyst

availability. With lower prices come lower 2026 estimates, namely for NTR EBITDA -6% BofAS+1 646 855 5746

and CF -9%. Conversely, sulfur has had trouble “normalizing”, creating lasting headwinds matthew.deyoe@bofa.com

for phosphate. Grain prices themselves have fallen victim, as better US conditions and Hakim Sanfo

Research Analyst

bullish investor positioning unwound. This has been a challenge for the value chain, BofAS

which is managing its own pricing/inventory strategies in the backdrop of very poor +1 646 743 1557

hakim.sanfo@bofa.com

farmer sentiment. We are Buy rated on NTR and CTVA and remain Underperform on CF.

US corn prices come under pressure though we see upside Acronyms:

In the days following the SOH MOU, we saw an 88% reduction in net speculative longs in

ag markets with managed money flipping from decade high longs in corn to net short. A CF: CF Industries

breakdown in crude markets bucked enthusiasm on the correlation trade, while US corn

CTVA: Corteva