LatAm At A Glance: Second half

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LatAm At A Glance: Second half

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LatAm At A Glance

Second half

Economics: It Ain't Over 'til It's Over 20 July 2026

Given the importance of oil prices and US financial conditions for the global economy, an GEM Economics

escalation of tensions in the Middle East represents an underpriced risk. Given the LatAm

wealth effect-driven consumption, a correction in equity markets could directly hit

consumption dynamics (see our report: Finding Memo). The USMCA was not extended Table of Contents

on July 1, it remains in force but is now subject to periodic reviews.

LDM strategy 2

We cut our LatAm GDP growth forecast to 2.1% (-0.1pp) for 2026 on the back of lower External debt strategy 3

growth expected in Argentina and Chile. We also see slightly lower regional inflation in Equity Strategy 4

2026 due to lower inflation expected in Mexico. Brazil 5

Mexico 8

We changed our monetary policy call for Brazil and now expect one more cut in August (-

Argentina 11

25bp). In Colombia, we now expect the central bank to remain on hold at 12.00% for the

rest of the year. Chile 13

Colombia 15

Peru 17LDM: The case for receivers

Asynchronized wave of better-than-expected inflation prints strengthens the case for Ecuador 19

fixed income receivers. In the US, core CPI came in below expectations, reducing market Uruguay 20

conviction around near-term rate hikes. In Brazil, we shifted our Selic call to a 25bp cut. Venezuela 21

Mexico’s inflation is now inside the target range. This regional disinflation trend Central America and Caribbean 22

supports rate receiver positions. Macro, Rates and FX Forecasts 27

EXD: Ecuador moved to MW; OW Arg, DomRep, Brazil Research Analysts 37

We moved our recommendation on Ecuador to Marketweight given that investor