Providers – Bridging For 2Q26; Troughed Sentiment Offers Downside Protection & Bright Spots

Research evidence excerpt

Providers – Bridging For 2Q26; Troughed Sentiment Offers Downside Protection & Bright Spots

Healthcare Providers July 20, 2026

Jason Cassorla

jason.cassorla@guggenheimpartners.com Providers – Bridging For 2Q26; Troughed Sentiment

212 518 9501 Offers Downside Protection & Bright Spots Lin Zhang, CFA

lin.zhang@guggenheimpartners.com

212 518 9017 Key Message: We updated our 2Q26 EBITDA estimates across our provider coverage

universe (ACHC, ARDT, CYH, HCA, THC, UHS), factoring HIX coverage developments,

softer volume trends, DPP approvals, and other considerations. However, on the heels

of HCA’s preannouncement, along with MCO and MedTech 2Q26 earnings commentary,

we argue sentiment has generally troughed across most of our provider coverage. As a

result, we see downside protection for most, and a few bright spots worth noting. In terms

of stock set-ups, we generally like THC into 2Q26 earnings despite likely incremental HIX

and volume headwinds pressuring 2Q and 2H26 EBITDA, as DPP, THC’s premier cost

flexing, and USPI insulation provide key offsets that could allow THC to perhaps reiterate

2026 guidance. We also argue a unique set-up for UHS, as lowering its 2026 guide

despite significant DPP benefits could prove to be a clearing event that better positions

the company to deliver 2H26 upside. ARDT’s recent mgmt changes (link to note) have

similarly set numbers up well, with mgmt perhaps pointing to the lower end of its current

2026 guidance range. For CYH, we remain concerned with core volume development, but

better-than-expected DPP-related EBITDA could aid in the call option-esque dynamic for

the stock. HCA’s 2Q preannouncement has largely reset its bar, but questions regarding

2H26 HIX headwinds remain. Lastly, ACHC’s upside opportunity remains, and we’d be