U.S. Auto Retail: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Upgrade KMX to EW; CPRT vols tracking lower, RBA higher

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Auto Retail: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Upgrade KMX to EW; CPRT vols tracking lower, RBA higher

Barclays | U.S. Auto Retail

If KMX is successful in improving operations, we think there could be potential upside to Street

GPU estimates. This would come from increasing the efficiency of its reconditioning centers and

making improvements in its logistics network, including from leveraging technology. We think

these factors could benefit GPUs by several hundred dollars, although our estimates assume

only a partial capture by the end of F2028.

Industry data supports view CPRT is losing share to RBA in salvage auction market

Recent industry data supports our view that Copart (CPRT) is losing share in the salvage vehicle

auction market to RB Global (RBA). The data shows CPRT volumes are tracking down -1.4% YoY

so far in F4Q26 (May and June) while RBA volumes are tracking up +14.9% YoY over the same

period. The decline for CPRT comes even as comps are relatively easy following a -4.1% YoY

decline in May and June 2025. By comparison, RBA was up +3.2% YoY in May and June last year.

We believe the declines for CPRT and growth for RBA are in part driven by the impact of recent

contract negotiations, which we expect will result in net share gains for RBA in 2026. Our

discussions with industry contacts suggest RBA gained share with the largest auto insurer and

may now handle all of their salvage vehicle volumes. However, we have gotten some indications

from our industry discussions that CPRT picked up volumes from a sizable contract that was

previously split with RBA. As we discuss below, we believe RBA’s take rate will likely decline in

2026 from volume discounts related to the contract negotiations.

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